Data through May 17, 202610d lag
Nicolas Feuillatte maintains stable demand amidst a dormant regime
Nicolas Feuillatte is currently in a dormant regime with high stability at 99.35%, showing modest alpha performance with a score of 1.22. Despite the dormant state, the brand's ADI score of 69.4 ranks it third in the category, indicating strong relative desirability in the French market. The current stability suggests that the brand is unlikely to experience significant changes without external triggers.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: the brand is outperforming the category with a high ADI score. This suggests a review of pricing power with commercial data.
Attribution
Stable brand demand with category outperformance(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Champagne calendar. Analyst note: persistence=99%, confidence=100%, topology=k=3 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions support pricing action - strong signals across the board.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: France
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-4.2% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Above-average desirability within the category.
Healthy desirability. Maintain current strategy.
as of May 20, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 2 of 13 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of May 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 22% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Trajectory points toward heating - prepare capture tactics for a compounding window.
Most likely transition: heating (2% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of May 20, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Current Year Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=1.7765670648863974).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine any dynamic seasonal timing shifts for Nicolas Feuillatte.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Christmas gifting and celebrations
Window: Feb 8 – Feb 22
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline