Data through May 17, 202610d lag
Dom Perignon maintains stability amidst dormant regime
Dom Perignon is currently in a dormant regime with high stability (0.9354 [0.8916, 0.9701]), indicating a well-established position in the market. Despite the dormancy, the brand shows modest outperformance with an alpha score of 1.13, suggesting it is slightly outperforming the category. The ADI score of 72 places Dom Perignon second in the category, confirming its strong desirability relative to peers. However, the neutral trend direction and moderate momentum (50.3) suggest no immediate shifts in attention dynamics.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Stable brand positioning with modest category outperformance(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Champagne calendar. Analyst note: persistence=94%, confidence=99%, topology=k=3 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: France
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-5.6% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Above-average desirability within the category.
Healthy desirability. Maintain current strategy.
as of May 20, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 5 of 13 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of May 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 13% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Trajectory points toward heating - prepare capture tactics for a compounding window.
Most likely transition: heating (4% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of May 20, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Current Year Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=1.8204637796500471).
LLM Interpretation
Data insufficient to determine dynamic seasonal timing shifts.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Christmas gifting and celebrations
Window: Jun 7 – Jun 21
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline