Data through May 17, 202610d lag
Champagne Krug struggles as peers outpace in French market
Champagne Krug is firmly in a dormant regime with a stability score of 93.6%, indicating entrenched stagnation. The brand's alpha score of -0.63 suggests it is losing attention to competitors in the French market. Despite recent initiatives like collaborations with Max Richter, these have not translated into sustained search interest, as evidenced by a momentum score of 32.8, which is low compared to peers.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: momentum is below 40 and the brand is tracking the category, not leading it. This is not the environment to test price increases: attention data suggests the brand has no excess demand to absorb a hike.
Attribution
Lack of brand differentiation in a competitive market(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Champagne calendar. Analyst note: persistence=94%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: France
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-29.5% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Lowest desirability tier. Structural intervention required.
Desirability critically low. Existential review needed.
as of May 20, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 11 of 13 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of May 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 163% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Confirmed decline
Both momentum and category performance are weak. The brand is cooling and losing ground to peers. This is a structural issue, not seasonal. Intervention required.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +67.51% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by -20.09% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of May 20, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
-1 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 3
Jan 12 - Jan 18
Current Year Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=-1 weeks, z=0.8651909764584779).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine a significant seasonal timing shift for Krug.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Christmas gifting and celebrations
Window: Jan 25 – Feb 8
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline