Data through April 5, 202652d lag
YSL Libre faces decline as peers gain ground
YSL Libre is currently in a Cooling regime with a stability score of 0.91, indicating a firmly established decline. The alpha score of -0.99 suggests that the product is losing ground to its category peers. Recent news highlights a new variant, 'Libre Berry Crush', which may not have resonated well with consumers, contributing to the decline. The brand's ADI score of 16.0 is significantly lower than competitors, reflecting a loss in relative desirability.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Pull back on promoting new variants and refocus on the core product: the current trend indicates a lack of consumer interest in recent launches.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is cooling: momentum is below 40 and the brand is tracking the category, not leading it. This is not the environment to test price increases.
Attribution
Lack of consumer resonance with new variants(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Reduce & Audit
Risk
Stable: cooling. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Women's Fragrance calendar. Analyst note: persistence=91%, confidence=87%, topology=k=4 (fixed, bayesian).
Commercial Timing
Pricing action is inadvisable - the brand is in confirmed structural decline.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+3.6% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Lowest desirability tier. Structural intervention required.
Desirability critically low. Existential review needed.
as of May 21, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 7 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Apr 5, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 199% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
NormalSignal adequate -- hedge position sizing on tactical shifts.
Trend Direction
↘ BearishConviction
Trend favors defensive posture -- protect margin and brand equity.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (4% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Confirmed decline
Both momentum and category performance are weak. The brand is cooling and losing ground to peers. This is a structural issue, not seasonal. Intervention required.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +16.27% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium)
Trend rate changed by +12.69% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
product_news(medium)
Trend rate changed by +8.32% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 15 – Nov 29
Black Friday / Cyber Week promotions
Window: May 17 – May 31
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline