Data through May 17, 202610d lag
Rolex Submariner struggles as peers gain ground in luxury watches
The Rolex Submariner is currently in a heating regime with high stability at 89.65%, yet it is losing ground in the category with an alpha score of -0.48. Recent discontinuation of the 'Cookie Monster' model may have impacted desirability, as indicated by a bearish trend direction with low conviction. This suggests the product is not capturing the same level of attention as its peers, despite a stable regime.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Signal is noisy - defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Attribution
Discontinuation of 'Cookie Monster' model(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Scale & Protect
Risk
Stable: heating. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Luxury Watches calendar. Analyst note: persistence=90%, confidence=78%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+89.9% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Below-average desirability. Attention needed.
Desirability fading. Reassess positioning.
as of May 21, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthBrand asleep. Ignition required.
Desirability is softening. Monitor for renewed traction.
Rank 7 of 8 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of May 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 148% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
TurbulentSignal noisy -- defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Trend Direction
↘ BearishConviction
Trend favors defensive posture -- protect margin and brand equity.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Momentum may flatten out - re-allocate budget if dormancy confirms.
Most likely transition: dormant (11% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Confirmed decline
Both momentum and category performance are weak. The brand is cooling and losing ground to peers. This is a structural issue, not seasonal. Intervention required.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +48.13% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium)
Trend rate changed by +22.08% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +8.67% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Aug 2 – Aug 16
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Jan 25 – Feb 8
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline