Data through May 17, 202610d lag
Nike Pegasus stagnates as competitors gain momentum in the US
Nike Pegasus is currently in a dormant regime with a stability score of 0.88, indicating a consistent lack of momentum. The alpha score of -0.34 highlights a significant decline in product-specific desirability compared to peers like Nike Dunk and Air Max, which are outperforming. Despite the launch of the Pegasus 42, the product has not captured sufficient attention to shift its desirability trajectory, suggesting that the update has not resonated as expected.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is cooling: momentum is below 40 and the brand is tracking the category, not leading it. This is not the environment to test price increases: attention data suggests the brand has no excess demand to absorb a hike.
Signal is noisy - defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Attribution
Lack of resonance with new product launch(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Sticky-but-contested: dormant. Current evidence suggests the regime label is contested at the current week, but if it lands here it is likely to persist. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Sneaker Desirability - Nike vs Challengers calendar. Analyst note: persistence=88%, confidence=54%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+7.3% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Below-average desirability. Attention needed.
Desirability fading. Reassess positioning.
as of May 21, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 8 of 8 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of May 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 134% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
TurbulentSignal noisy -- defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Trend Direction
↘ BearishConviction
Trend favors defensive posture -- protect margin and brand equity.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Confirmed decline
Both momentum and category performance are weak. The brand is cooling and losing ground to peers. This is a structural issue, not seasonal. Intervention required.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +44.39% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
product_news(medium)
Trend rate changed by +6.93% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
critical_media_reception(medium)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of May 21, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Current Year Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=-0.3051440570780898).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine any dynamic seasonal timing shifts for Nike Pegasus.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 8 – Nov 22
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline