Data through April 5, 202652d lag
Miss Dior maintains modest outperformance in a stable market
Miss Dior is currently in a dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.97, indicating that the brand's position is firmly established. Despite this, the product shows a modest alpha score of 1.46, suggesting slight outperformance within the category. Recent news highlights the brand's continued cultural relevance and product innovation, which may contribute to its modest alpha. The stable regime and neutral demand environment suggest that Miss Dior is maintaining its position without significant shifts in attention.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: the brand is maintaining its position with modest outperformance. This is not the environment to test price increases: attention data suggests the brand has no excess demand to absorb a hike.
Attribution
Product innovation and cultural relevance(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Women's Fragrance calendar. Analyst note: persistence=97%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+9.5% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Above-average desirability within the category.
Healthy desirability. Maintain current strategy.
as of May 21, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 3 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Apr 5, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 46% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Quiet outperformance
Momentum appears weak but the brand is significantly outperforming its category peers. The market is declining - your relative position is strong. This is a defensible moat, not a crisis.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +39.08% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +17.33% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +9.49% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 15 – Nov 29
Black Friday / Cyber Week promotions
Window: May 10 – May 24
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline