Data through April 5, 202652d lag
La Petite Robe Noire maintains modest alpha in dormant regime
La Petite Robe Noire is currently in a dormant regime with a stability score of 0.88 [0.81, 0.94], indicating a firmly established state. Despite being dormant, the product shows a modest alpha of 1.04, suggesting slight outperformance against the category. This stability, combined with moderate momentum, suggests that while the product is not experiencing significant growth, it maintains a steady presence in the market.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Stable product interest(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Women's Fragrance calendar. Analyst note: persistence=88%, confidence=94%, topology=k=4 (fixed, bayesian).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+2.1% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Above-average desirability within the category.
Healthy desirability. Maintain current strategy.
as of May 21, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 1 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Apr 5, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthKeeping pace with the category.
Tracking with the market. No unique alpha.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
NormalSignal adequate -- hedge position sizing on tactical shifts.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Trajectory points toward heating - prepare capture tactics for a compounding window.
Most likely transition: heating (4% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 15 – Nov 29
Black Friday / Cyber Week promotions
Window: Jul 12 – Jul 26
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline