Data through April 5, 202652d lag
J'adore Dior maintains modest alpha in a dormant regime
J'adore Dior is currently in a dormant regime with high stability at 88.3% [80.5, 93.8]. The product has a modest alpha score of 1.38, indicating slight outperformance against its category peers. Despite this, the ADI score has decreased by 6.7 points, signaling a relative decline in desirability. The current regime is stable, but the absence of momentum suggests limited immediate growth potential.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Stable brand equity and historical consumer loyalty(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Sticky-but-contested: dormant. Current evidence suggests the regime label is contested at the current week, but if it lands here it is likely to persist. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Women's Fragrance calendar. Analyst note: persistence=88%, confidence=54%, topology=k=4 (fixed, bayesian).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+11.5% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of May 21, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 5 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Apr 5, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 38% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Trajectory points toward heating - prepare capture tactics for a compounding window.
Most likely transition: heating (5% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +17.45% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 29 – Dec 13
Holiday gifting season (biggest spike for fragrance)
Window: Feb 8 – Feb 22
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline