Data through April 5, 202652d lag
Coco Mademoiselle maintains dominance as perfume category remains flat
Coco Mademoiselle exhibits a strong alpha score of 1.5, indicating it is capturing attention from competitors in a stagnant market. Despite being in a dormant regime, the product's desirability is pulling ahead, driven by strategic branding moves such as the campaign with Whitney Peak. This positions Coco Mademoiselle advantageously to leverage its current attention and explore pricing strategies.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Lean into editorial and social placements: Coco Mademoiselle's organic search momentum is strong, and paid amplification can further capitalize on this real signal.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is rising: Coco Mademoiselle is outperforming the category, suggesting a review of pricing power with commercial data is warranted.
Attribution
Whitney Peak campaign(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Women's Fragrance calendar. Analyst note: persistence=93%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+11.3% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Above-average desirability within the category.
Healthy desirability. Maintain current strategy.
as of May 21, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 4 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Apr 5, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 50% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +19.59% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 15 – Nov 29
Black Friday / Cyber Week promotions
Window: Feb 1 – Feb 15
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline