Data through May 17, 202610d lag
Adidas Gazelle struggles in US sneaker market under Dormant regime
Adidas Gazelle is currently in a Dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.94, indicating entrenched low demand in the US market. Despite a positive ADI delta of 12.7, the product's alpha score of 0.83 signifies underperformance compared to peers like Nike Dunk and Adidas Samba, which are capturing more attention. This suggests that recent marketing efforts have not translated into significant search interest or desirability gains.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Lack of compelling differentiation in marketing(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Sneaker Desirability - Nike vs Challengers calendar. Analyst note: persistence=94%, confidence=100%, topology=k=3 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+9.0% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of May 21, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 7 of 8 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of May 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthLosing ground to the category.
Underperforming category. Losing 17% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +236.24% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
product_news(medium); market_sentiment(low)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of May 21, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 7
Feb 9 - Feb 15
Current Year Start
Week 7
Feb 9 - Feb 15
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=1.1301723445988898e-06).
LLM Interpretation
Insufficient data to determine a dynamic seasonal timing shift.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Jul 19 – Aug 2
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: May 17 – May 31
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline